594
AXNT20 KNHC 130535
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0455 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 40.1W AT 13/0300 UTC
OR 1320 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 17 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS TO 4 METERS/12 FEET
EXTEND 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 30 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT, AND
15 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EXTENDS WITHIN
100 NM OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ERIN WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE BY
LATE THURSDAY. ERIN IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY
TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. ERIN COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND TO
PRODUCE SOME IMPACTS ON THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF
THOSE IMPACTS IS STILL NOT KNOWN, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 15N AND EAST OF 25W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT EMERGES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS WAVE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND ALSO IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N35W AND
THEN FROM 11N42W TO 07N57W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIURNAL HEATING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN YUCATAN
AND FLORIDA, AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE INTO
THE EASTER GULF AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO NOTED IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS, SUSTAINING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WED AND INTO THE SW GULF THU, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES WNW OR NW, AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND INLAND, AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE LOUISIANA WILL END TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE,
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT IN THE LEE OF
CUBA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA, WHILE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST EAST OF 80W. THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
PASS CAPTURED STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OFF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 6-9 FT. IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EVIDENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 16.7N 40.1W AT 11 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.3N 42.6W WED MORNING, 16.2N 45.5W WED
EVENING, AND 16.6N 48.4W THU MORNING, TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL
REACH 17.3N 51.4W THU EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
18.1N 54.6W FRI MORNING, AND BE NEAR 18.9N 57.5W FRI EVENING.
HURRICANE ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE, A WESTWARD-
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HONDURAS, BELIZE, THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, AND ADJACENT WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, NORTH OF 28N AND WEST
OF 60W, CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS UNDER A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH T.S. ERIN IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF ERIN TO ABOUT 26N AND
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
NORTH OF 22N AND EAST OF 30W. SEAS IN THE AREA DESCRIBED ARE 4-7
FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.0N 38.3W AT 5 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.6N 40.8W WED MORNING, 16.4N 43.9W WED
AFTERNOON, 16.6N 46.8W THU MORNING, 17.2N 49.9W THU AFTERNOON,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.9N 52.9W FRI MORNING, AND 18.6N
56.0W FRI AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 20.0N 61.5W SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS,
ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING.
DELGADO
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