423
AXNT20 KNHC 131010
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 41.9W AT 13/0900 UTC
OR 1220 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 17 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS TO 4 METERS/12 FEET
EXTEND 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 30 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT, AND 15
NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ERIN'S
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BECOME A HURRICANE THU NIGHT.
ERIN IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
GRADUALLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ERIN COULD
MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE SOME IMPACTS
ON THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE IMPACTS IS STILL
NOT KNOWN, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W, FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO COLOMBIA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W, SOUTH OF 19N
EXTENDING INTO HONDURAS, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT EMERGES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N36W AND
THEN FROM 11N42W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A NW CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SW GULF LATER THIS WEEK.
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS
DIURNAL IN NATURAL, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING, AND HAS DISSIPATED
EARLY THIS MORNING, LEAVING THE BASIN GENERALLY DRY. WEAK RIDGING
DOMINATES THE BASIN, LEADING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS
OF LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF,
MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BASIN
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE,
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION.
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
NOTED OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REST
OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 16.5N 41.9W AT 5 AM
EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.4N 44.1W THIS AFTERNOON, 16.5N 47.1W THU
MORNING, AND 17.0N 50.0W THU AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 52.9W FRI MORNING, THEN MOVE TO 18.6N 55.8W
FRI AFTERNOON, AND 19.5N 58.7W SAT MORNING. HURRICANE ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE, A WESTWARD- MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG 87W WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ASIDE FROM ERIN AND CONVECTION BEING CAUSED BY A TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE MONSOON TROUGH, DESCRIBED IN ABOVE SECTIONS, NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS IMPACTING THE BASIN THIS MORNING. A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS EXTEND FROM 31N52W TO 25N65W AND FROM 31N68W TO 28N72W,
RESPECTIVELY, BUT ARE INDUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN IS BEING
DOMINATED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED N OF THE AREA. WINDS N
OF 23N ARE MAINLY GENTLE WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. TO THE SOUTH,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL TO THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 16.5N 41.9W AT 5 AM
EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.4N 44.1W THIS AFTERNOON, 16.5N 47.1W THU
MORNING, AND 17.0N 50.0W THU AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 52.9W FRI MORNING, THEN MOVE TO 18.6N 55.8W
FRI AFTERNOON, AND 19.5N 58.7W SAT MORNING. HURRICANE ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
KONARIK
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