774
AXNT20 KNHC 131753
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 43.4W AT 13/1500 UTC
OR 1130 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE CENTER. SEAS
TO 4 METERS/12 FEET EXTEND 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 45 NM IN THE
NW QUADRANT, AND 30 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER, GENERALLY
ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF ERIN. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, AND ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. ERIN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
WEST, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
ERIN COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS,
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE SOME
IMPACTS ON THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE IMPACTS
IS STILL NOT KNOWN, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 21W AND 26W.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG 58W, FROM 19N SOUTHWARD
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR THE WAVE.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W, FROM THE SE COAST
OF CUBA SOUTHWARD TO COLOMBIA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W, SOUTH OF 19N
EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, BELIZE, GUATEMALA,
HONDURAS, AND EL SALVADOR, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT EMERGES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MOROCCO NEAR 21.5N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N40W. THE
ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 11N47W TO 10N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 21W AND
40W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH RUNS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN INTO FAR NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY S OF
11N AND W OF 75W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A NW CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SW GULF LATER THIS WEEK.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N88W SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
WEAK RIDING ACROSS THE BASIN IS LEADING TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND ALONG
THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, WEAK RIDGING
PREVAILS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 FT
OR LESS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE AS IT
MOVES WEST THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. SOME TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW
OR NW, AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BASIN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTIONS FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE COLOMBIA IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA, ALONG WITH 6-10 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REMAINING BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 16.3N 43.4W AT 11
AM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.3N 45.6W THIS EVENING, 16.6N 48.6W
THU MORNING, 17.4N 51.5W THU EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 18.2N 54.3W FRI MORNING, 19.0N 57.2W FRI EVENING, AND 19.9N
60.0W SAT MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 21.7N 64.6W BY EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE, A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG 88W WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ANY CONVECTION RELATED TO WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN.
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE NW TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, ONE FROM 31N62W TO 29N69W TO 31N74W, AND THE OTHER FROM
31N52W TO 27N64W TO 23N66W. THESE TROUGHS ARE LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM TS
ERIN IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING. MODERATE TO FRESH E
TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS N OF 20N AND E
OF 55W, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 16.3N 43.4W AT 11
AM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.3N 45.6W THIS EVENING, 16.6N 48.6W
THU MORNING, 17.4N 51.5W THU EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 18.2N 54.3W FRI MORNING, 19.0N 57.2W FRI EVENING, AND 19.9N
60.0W SAT MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 21.7N 64.6W BY EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT
SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
ADAMS
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