167
AXNT20 KNHC 140545
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU AUG 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 00000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0455 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 46.6W AT 14/0300 UTC
OR 950 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 13N TO 20N AND BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. SEAS TO 4 METERS/12 FEET EXTEND 90 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT, 30 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT, AND 45 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT
OF ERIN. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS, AND TROPICAL-
STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND AS THE
CORE OF ERIN PASSES NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS. SWELLS GENERATED BY
ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS WEEKEND.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE (INVEST 98L) EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
KT. THE BROAD LOW IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY,
ENDING ITS CHANCES OF FORMATION. THIS WAVE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N41W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N47W TO 09N51W. THE ITCZ IS
ANALYZED FROM 09N51W TO 09N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 10N TO 16N AND BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK RIDGE
SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NEARBY
WATERS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF
THROUGH FRI, THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NE
MEXICO BY LATE FRI. OTHERWISE, GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BASIN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
CUBA, HISPANIOLA AND YUCATAN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
SPILLING INTO THE SURROUNDING WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS. MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 16.3N 46.6W AT 11 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.5N 48.8W THU MORNING, 17.2N 51.8W THU
EVENING, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 18.0N 54.9W FRI
MORNING. HURRICANE ERIN WILL BE NEAR 18.9N 57.8W FRI EVENING,
19.8N 60.6W SAT MORNING, AND 20.6N 62.9W SAT EVENING. ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THU DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, BEFORE DIMINISHING THU NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. THE REST OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE AZORES ARCHIPELAGO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM ERIN RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF ERIN TO 30N AND BETWEEN 35W AND
65W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE WATERS DESCRIBED.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 35W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 16.3N 46.6W AT 11 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.5N 48.8W THU MORNING, 17.2N 51.8W THU
EVENING, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 18.0N 54.9W FRI
MORNING. HURRICANE ERIN WILL BE NEAR 18.9N 57.8W FRI EVENING,
19.8N 60.6W SAT MORNING, AND 20.6N 62.9W SAT EVENING. ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DELGADO
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