305
AXNT20 KNHC 141634
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU AUG 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1633 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 49.7W AT 14/1500 UTC
OR 770 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 48 W AND 55W. SEAS TO
4 METERS/12 FEET EXTEND 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 30 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT, AND 45 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF ERIN. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND ERIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
WITH THIS MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS, AND
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE CORE OF ERIN PASSES NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIN. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 25.5W AND 32.5W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W, FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19.5N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT FROM 07N TO 18N, EAST OF 23W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (AL98) LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 19N TO
23N BETWEEN 92W AND 94.5W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO, WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY, ENDING ITS
CHANCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFER TO THE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 25.5N BETWEEN
90W AND 94W. OVERALL, THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF
3 FT OR LESS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 3
TO 4 FT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (AL98).
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM INVEST 98, GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BASIN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 15.5N AND 20.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 86W. THE EASTERN EXTENSION
OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N AND IS INDUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE PANAMA. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA, AND GENTLE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY
MODERATE, BUT SLIGHT IN THE NW BASIN, AND LOCALLY ROUGH OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIN, STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO NEAR 23N71W
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS, N OF
23N BETWEEN 63W TO 72W. THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIN, THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AND A TROPICAL WAVE, ALL DESCRIBED IN SECTIONS
ABOVE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE BASINS
WEATHER, PROVIDING FOR GENTLE WINDS FOR WATERS W OF 60W AND N OF
25N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
AND TROPICAL STORM ERIN RESULTS IN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS NORTH OF ERIN TO 28N AND BETWEEN 19W AND 66W. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE WATERS DESCRIBED. SOUTH OF 15N AND
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS
PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIN, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY
SLIGHT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
KRV
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