931
AXNT20 KNHC 142319
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 51.2W AT 14/2100 UTC
OR 690 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 15 KT.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SW AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SEAS
TO 4 METERS/12 FT OR GREATER EXTEND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT, 30 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT, AND 60 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT
OF ERIN WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 6 METERS/18 FT. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERIN THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM ERIN
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG
WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTHWESTERN GULF (AL98):
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY ENDING
ITS CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS ALONG
67W MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 21N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (AL98) LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS BEFORE MOVING INLAND. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 92W
AND 96W RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
RIDGE THAT IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE SW GULF, PARTICULARLY FROM 21N TO
23N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (AL98).
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM AL98, GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BASIN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN.
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATION OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
THE RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF
AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION
HAS FLARED-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING,
LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES LIFTING.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL MOVE TO 17.3N 53.5W
FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 18.1N 56.6W FRI
AFTERNOON, 19.0N 59.5W SAT MORNING, 19.8N 62.2W SAT AFTERNOON,
20.8N 64.4W SUN MORNING, AND 21.7N 66.1W SUN AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 24.2N 68.9W ON MON
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO NEAR
24N72W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST E OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED NEAR 33N45W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
AND T.S. ERIN SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS N OF ERIN TO ABOUT 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
52W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE E OF
65W, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL MOVE TO 17.3N 53.5W
FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 18.1N 56.6W FRI
AFTERNOON, 19.0N 59.5W SAT MORNING, 19.8N 62.2W SAT AFTERNOON,
20.8N 64.4W SUN MORNING, AND 21.7N 66.1W SUN AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 24.2N 68.9W ON MON
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GR
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