966
AXNT20 KNHC 150605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0505 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 53.0W AT 15/0600 UTC
OR 580 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13N TO
23N AND BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SEAS TO 4 METERS/12 FT OR GREATER
EXTEND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 30 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT,
AND 60 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF ERIN WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 6
METERS/19 FT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS WEEKEND. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO
MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS
WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
BY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTHWESTERN GULF (AL98):
RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO LACK A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOME OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR
SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 18W, SOUTH OF 18N, BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TROPICAL WAVE GUIDANCE. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 10N TO 15N AND EAST OF 22W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 25W AND 37W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR
AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N30W AND
TO 16N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 08N TO
18N AND BETWEEN 38W AND 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON INVEST 98L
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE, A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND OFF WESTERN FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE, A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
MEXICO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
3-5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FOUND OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND SOUTH OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM INVEST 98L, GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BASIN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN LOCATED 580 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ANTILLES.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SUSTAINS FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND
ALSO IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.1N 52.7W AT 11 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998 MB. ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 55.2W FRI
MORNING, MOVE TO 18.6N 58.3W FRI EVENING, 19.4N 61.0W SAT MORNING,
20.3N 63.3W SAT EVENING, 21.3N 65.4W SUN MORNING, AND 22.4N 67.0W
SUN EVENING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
25.0N 69.4W LATE MON. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN LOCATED 580 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ANTILLES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE REGION,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF
27N AND WEST OF 60W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-6 FT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE AZORES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM ERIN
RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS SOUTH OF 26N AND BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 18N
AND EAST OF 45W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.1N 52.7W AT 11 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998 MB. ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 55.2W FRI
MORNING, MOVE TO 18.6N 58.3W FRI EVENING, 19.4N 61.0W SAT MORNING,
20.3N 63.3W SAT EVENING, 21.3N 65.4W SUN MORNING, AND 22.4N 67.0W
SUN EVENING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NEAR 25.0N 69.4W LATE MON. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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