203
AXNT20 KNHC 151325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
UPDATED TO INCLUDE INFORMATION FROM THE 1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM ERIN AND THE 1200 UTC ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1050 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 55.2W AT 15/1200 UTC
OR 450 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 15
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN
51W AND 61W. PEAK SEAS ARE 21 FT.ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
THIS WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS
WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT
WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE
EXPECTED. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTHWESTERN GULF (AL98): SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
PERSISTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTLINE.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE, REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 05N TO
18N WITH AXIS NEAR 19W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 13W AND 23W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 04N TO
18N WITH AXIS NEAR 32W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND
40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS S OF 19N NEAR 69W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS SOUTH OF 19N AND
NEAR 83W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OFFSHORES AS WELL AS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N30W AND
TO 15N45W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
CONVECTION.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON INVEST 98L
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
INVEST 98L IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
SE WINDS. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE NW
GULF, A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF IS PROVIDING
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS E OF 90W. MODERATE
SEAS TO 5 FT ARE ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM INVEST 98L, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE
WINDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.8N 54.4W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
OTHERWISE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 18.4N
56.9W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 19.3N 59.9W SAT MORNING, 20.1N 62.5W
SAT AFTERNOON, 21.0N 64.8W SUN MORNING, 22.2N 66.9W SUN
AFTERNOON, AND 23.2N 68.5W MON MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 25.5N 70.5W EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.8N 54.4W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS E OF 40W AND
BETWEEN 62W AND 74W S OF 24N.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 18.4N
56.9W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 19.3N 59.9W SAT MORNING, 20.1N 62.5W
SAT AFTERNOON, 21.0N 64.8W SUN MORNING, 22.2N 66.9W SUN AFTERNOON,
AND 23.2N 68.5W MON MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES NEAR 25.5N 70.5W EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NAR/MAHONEY
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