364
AXNT20 KNHC 151757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 56.8W AT 15/1800 UTC OR
360 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN
54W AND 61W. PEAK SEAS ARE 22 FT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS, AND ERIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERIN ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AND LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF. SWELLS GENERATED BY
ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS WEEKEND, AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE. A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED
STATES CAN BE FOUND AT:
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 19W, FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD, AND NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N WEST OF 23W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 33W, FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W, FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS NOW
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION (TWDEP).
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR DAKAR, SENEGAL, AND
CONTINUES TO 13N44W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION. NO SEGMENTS OF THE ITCZ ARE ANALYZED AT THIS TIME.
GULF OF AMERICA...
WESTERN GULF (AL98): AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. AIRCRAFT WIND
DATA AND COASTAL DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION IS NOT PRESENT AND THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE IS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
THEREFORE, THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION IS DIMINISHING WITH ONLY A
FEW HOURS LEFT OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AL98 HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 27N
WEST OF 93W. STRONG WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL NEAR THE
DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE, 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST, AND
2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM INVEST 98L, FAIRLY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE PERIOD.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
OTHERWISE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADES MAY BE LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.9N 58.4W
THIS EVENING, TO NEAR 19.8N 61.4W SAT MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT AND TO NEAR 20.6N 63.8W SAT
EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
ERIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS 21.6N
66.0W SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135
KT, AND BE WELL NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE IN THE WAKE OF ERIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO MOSTLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ERIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE ERIN WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. ASIDE
FROM HURRICANE ERIN, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH 4-7 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.9N 58.4W
THIS EVENING, TO NEAR 19.8N 61.4W SAT MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT AND TO NEAR 20.6N 63.8W SAT
EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. ERIN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS 21.6N 66.0W SUN
MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT, TO NEAR
22.7N 67.9W SUN EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 115 KT GUSTS 140
KT AND TO NEAR 23.8N 69.2W MON MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. ERIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 26.5N 70.8W EARLY TUE.
MAHONEY
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