572
AXNT20 KNHC 152240
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 57.6W AT 15/2100 UTC OR
320 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN
50W AND 64W. PEAK SEAS ARE 24 FT. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS, AND ERIN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE WEEKEND. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO
OVER THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO BY THIS WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
OUTER BANDS OF ERIN ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS,
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AND LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 20W, FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N AND E
OF 25W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 34W, FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W, FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W TO 13N47W.
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
GULF OF AMERICA...
WESTERN GULF (AL98): SATELLITE AND COASTAL DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL N OF 24N
AND W OF 90W, AND COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AL98 HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS. FRESH SE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL NEAR THE CONVECTION.
ELSEWHERE, 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST, AND
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM INVEST 98L, FAIRLY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE PERIOD.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
OTHERWISE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADES MAY BE LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.6N 59.9W
LATE TONIGHT AND TO NEAR 20.4N 62.7W SAT AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. ERIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS 21.2N 65.1W LATE SAT NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 120 KT, AND REMAIN AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WAKE OF ERIN, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO MOSTLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ERIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N72W TO
24N77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE ERIN. MODERATE TO FRESH AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS 21.6N 66.0W SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT, TO NEAR 22.7N 67.9W SUN
EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT AND TO NEAR
23.8N 69.2W MON MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS
145 KT. ERIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NEAR 26.5N 70.8W EARLY TUE.
ERA
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