120
AXNT20 KNHC 160548
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 59.5W AT 16/0300 UTC OR 215
NM ENE OF ANGUILLA, AND MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH 60 NM OF THE CENTER. PEAK SEAS ARE
AROUND 30 FT NEAR THE CENTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND ERIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY
SPREAD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE
OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERIN ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS,
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED AND LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG
WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES/PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 20W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 12N TO 16N AND E OF 20W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 73W FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD
TO CENTRAL COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR
DAKAR, THEN CURVES WESTWARD ACROSS 10N30W TO 15N46W. FARTHER
SOUTH, AN ITCZ REACHES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM 07N39W TO 10N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UP TO 100 NM ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 23W AND 29W, AND WEST OF
41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UP TO 150 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ.
THE FAR EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FLORIDA IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS CREATING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FRESH NE
WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AT THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OTHERWISE, A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR NEW ORLEANS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND CALM SEAS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST AT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, FAIRLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERIN.
CONVERGING TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HAITI, THE LEE OF CUBA AND SOUTH OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CONVERGING NW TO W WINDS SOUTHWEST OF
HURRICANE ERIN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND 4
TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO MOSTLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERIN.
AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE ERIN IS CAUSING NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS
FARTHER NORTH OF ERIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 67W. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT IN LARGE
EASTERLY SWELL ARE PRESENT NORTH OF HURRICANE ERIN FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND 9 TO 16 FT SEAS
ARE SEEN EAST OF ERIN FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT
ARE SEEN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS. NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST, A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N48W IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF ERIN, GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FT DOMINATE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO S-SE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF
35W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 20.2N 61.6W SAT
MORNING, 20.9N 64.2W SAT EVENING, 21.7N 66.3W SUN MORNING, 22.9N
67.9W SUN EVENING, 24.0N 68.9W MON MORNING, AND 25.6N 69.8W MON
EVENING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
28.9N 70.5W LATE TUE. LONG PERIOD E TO SE SWELL WILL SPREAD TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINNING LATE SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ERIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN AND A HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SURGES SOUTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
LEAD TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO NEAR 74W EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHAN
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