279
AXNT20 KNHC 161644 AAA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025
UPDATED FOR MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 16/1520 UTC
OR 90 NM N OF ANGUILLA, MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 917 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 140 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 44 FT NEAR THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N TO
23N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN OUTER
BANDS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT ERIN HAS BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY
CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR
MUDSLIDES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
WILL SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIN SINCE THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HIGH
SURF BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES/PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 05N
TO 21N WITH AXIS NEAR 22W, MOVING SLOWLY WEST AT AROUND 5-10 KT.
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM 03N TO
17N WITH AXIS NEAR 38W, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15-20 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM NEAR SE
CUBA BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA, S OF 20N TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
COLOMBIA NEAR 75.5W, MOVING WEST AROUND 15-20 KT. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AS
WELL AS FAR NW VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC AT THE COAST OF THE BORDER
OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16.5N16.5W, THEN CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N22W TO
08.5N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N46W TO 14N57.5W IN THE WAKE
OF MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN OFF TO THE NW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 25W TO AFRICA, WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 25W AND 32W, WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
40W AND 45W, AND FROM 08N AND 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE SE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN, CURRENTLY LOCATED NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, IS PROVIDING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS IN
THE GULF ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT MODERATE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO 5 FT WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST DUE
TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TROUGHING THERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
GULF, AND E TO SE WINDS OF THE SAME SPEEDS W OF 90W THROUGH MON.
SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE BASIN- WIDE AS A
RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
OFFSHORE WATERS, WHICH WILL LOWER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
REGION. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHT ACROSS THE GULF MON THROUGH
WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN.
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO
165 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINBANDS OF ERIN ARE CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NE CARIBBEAN, WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB EMBEDDED IN THE E EXTENSION OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10.5N75W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AND E OF 82W.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA
AND FROM BELIZE OFFSHORE AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE
SLIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN, MODERATE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION UP
TO AROUND 5 FT, AND EXCEPT HIGHER IN AND NEAR ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, LOCALLY
FRESH ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 11
AM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
923 MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO NEAR 20.1N 64.7W THIS EVENING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT GUSTS 175 KT, TO NEAR 21.0N 66.8W
SUN MORNING, AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
22.3N 68.5W SUN EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS
165 KT, THEN MOVE TO NEAR 23.5N 69.7W MON MORNING, TO NEAR 24.9N
70.4W MON EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT
AND TO NEAR 26.4N 70.9W TUE MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
HISPANIOLA, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS ON
MON AS ERIN MOVE FARTHER AWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OFFSHORE
WATERS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN.
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO
165 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB. ASIDE FROM
ERIN, THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N36W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31.5N22W. A CONVERGENCE LINE
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VERY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
N OF THE ITCZ FROM 17N52W SOUTHEASTWARD TO 13N42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FEATURE. THE
GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE, A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES
S OF 21N AND ERIN TO THE SW IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF 12N AND N OF THE CONVERGENCE LINE E OF
55W, WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEARBY THE HIGH CENTERS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES JUST N OF 31N ARE PUSHING ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 54W AND 61W, AND ALSO FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS, A WEAKER RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29.5N79W SUPPORTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N
OF 27N. ASIDE FROM THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W,
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 19.7N 62.8W AT 11 AM
EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135
KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923
MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO NEAR 20.1N 64.7W THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT GUSTS 175 KT, TO NEAR 21.0N 66.8W SUN
MORNING, AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 22.3N
68.5W SUN EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165
KT, THEN MOVE TO NEAR 23.5N 69.7W MON MORNING, TO NEAR 24.9N 70.4W
MON EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT AND
TO NEAR 26.4N 70.9W TUE MORNING. ERIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 30.6N 70.9W EARLY ON WED, THEN
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATER ON WED AS IT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF 31N.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
WILL SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
ON SUN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ERIN WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA
BEGINNING MON.
LEWITSKY
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