279
AXNT20 KNHC 162337
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 64.0W AT 16/2100 UTC OR
120 NM NNW OF ANGUILLA, MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 140
KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. SEAS OF 12 FT OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT, 150 NM SE QUADRANT, 120 NM SW
QUADRANT, AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT, WITH MAX SEAS TO 46 FT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-22N BETWEEN 59W-67W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY AND
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE OUTER BANDS OF
ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
AND PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES, ARE POSSIBLE.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
WILL SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 05N
TO 21N WITH AXIS NEAR 23W, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5-10 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM 03N TO
17N WITH AXIS NEAR 39W, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
76W FROM 11N-20N, MOVING WEST AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W TO 10N49W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 11N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N-17N AND E OF 31W, WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS PREVAIL FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 35W-46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE,
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N93W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON MAJOR
HURRICANE ERIN AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE PERIPHERY OF
HURRICANE ERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT WATERS N OF 16N AND E OF 68W. LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB
EMBEDDED IN THE E EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N79W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 10N AND E OF 78W. SEAS ARE SLIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN,
MODERATE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION, AND HIGHER IN AND NEAR ATLANTIC
PASSAGES. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN,
FRESH ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 20.4N 65.7W
SUN MORNING, 21.4N 67.6W SUN AFTERNOON, 22.7N 69.2W MON MORNING,
24.0N 70.2W MON AFTERNOON, 25.5N 70.9W TUE MORNING, AND 27.3N
71.3W TUE AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 31.7N 70.8W BY WED AFTERNOON. PERIPHERY MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH
TO GENTLE SPEEDS ON MON. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE BASIN BEGINNING LATE WED AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON MAJOR
HURRICANE ERIN AND THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
ASIDE FROM ERIN, THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
30N35W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 35N17W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PREVAIL E OF 55W. OVER THE W N ATLANTIC WATERS, A WEAK RIDGE
PREVAILS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N AND MODERATE
SEAS. ASIDE FROM THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W, SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 20.4N 65.7W
SUN MORNING, 21.4N 67.6W SUN AFTERNOON, 22.7N 69.2W MON MORNING,
24.0N 70.2W MON AFTERNOON, 25.5N 70.9W TUE MORNING, AND 27.3N
71.3W TUE AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 31.7N 70.8W BY WED AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
ON SUN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ERIN WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA
BEGINNING MON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ERIN WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE WINDS OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA BEGINNING ON MON.
ERA
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