221
AXNT20 KNHC 170611
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ERIN, A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 65.1W AT
17/0300 UTC OR 125 NM NNE OF SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO AND MOVING WNW
AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. SEAS OF 12 FT OR
HIGHER ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT, 180 NM SE QUADRANT,
120 NM SW QUADRANT, AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND
38 FT NEAR THE CENTER. HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN PASS TO
THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERIN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT, AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
WILL SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC
ADVISORY, PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 23W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 12N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 41W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 78W FROM NEAR JAMAICA
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER. IT IS MOVING WEST
AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER AND NEARBY CARIBBEAN WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITIAN AND SENEGAL, THEN CURVES WESTWARD ACROSS 11N30W TO
16N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 09N TO 18N AND EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FARTHER WEST UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS CAUSING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE, A 1017 MB HIGH SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY, LOUISIANA IS
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH CALM SEAS
ARE FOUND AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN.
THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ERIN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN AND NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MODEST CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FT ARE EVIDENT AT AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE
LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS WITH 7 TO 10 FT
SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN AND NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PERIPHERY MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG
S TO SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BASIN WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE
ON MON. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY FRESH ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BASIN BEGINNING
LATE WED AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN
THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN.
CONVERGENT EASTERLY WINDS FARTHER NORTH OF ERIN IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W.
AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, CONVERGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
CREATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES, MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO ESE WINDS WITH 10 TO 14
FT SEAS ARE SEEN NORTH OF ERIN FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND
71W. FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE
EVIDENT FARTHER EAST OF ERIN FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N44W IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND 3
TO 7 FT SEAS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA COAST. FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS OUTSIDE
OF ERIN'S INFLUENCE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT
4 TO 8 FT EXIST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 20.8N 66.7W
SUN MORNING, 22.0N 68.5W SUN EVENING, AND 23.3N 69.9W MON
MORNING. AFTERWARD, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 24.5N 70.8W MON EVENING,
26.0N 71.5W TUE MORNING, AND 28.0N 72.1W TUE EVENING. ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 32.0N 71.5W LATE WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ON SUN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ERIN WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR
74W FROM MON THROUGH WED. IN THE WAKE OF ERIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N/25N THROUGH THU NIGHT.
CHAN
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