981
AXNT20 KNHC 171222 AAA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
UPDATED WITH INFORMATION FROM THE 1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOR
HURRICANE ERIN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 67.0W AT 17/1200 UTC OR
150 NM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO, MOVING WNW AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 39 FT
NEAR THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N
TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 72W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF ERIN
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ERIN IS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES,
ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG
WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES, ARE POSSIBLE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD TO THE
BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC
CANADA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THESE ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE
UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND AT:
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 19N WITH AXIS NEAR 24W,
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 16N WITH AXIS NEAR 43W, MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N
TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N WITH AXIS NEAR 79W,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W, THEN CURVES
WESTWARD ACROSS 11N30W TO 16N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS CAUSING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE, A 1017 MB HIGH SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY, LOUISIANA IS
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH CALM SEAS
ARE FOUND BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH THU NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN.
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. THE
OUTER BANDS OF ERIN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
AND HISPANIOLA, TODAY AND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 21.3N 67.9W THIS AFTERNOON,
22.5N 69.5W MON MORNING, 23.8N 70.6W MON AFTERNOON, 25.2N 71.5W
TUE MORNING, 26.9N 72.1W TUE AFTERNOON, AND 28.9N 72.2W WED
MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
33.3N 70.2W EARLY THU. PERIPHERY MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO
GENTLE SPEEDS ON MON. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY
FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE BASIN BEGINNING LATE WED AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN.
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB.
ASIDE FROM ERIN, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN
46W AND 59W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N43W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N29W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES S OF 20N IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER
THESE REGIONS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 21.3N 67.9W THIS AFTERNOON,
22.5N 69.5W MON MORNING, 23.8N 70.6W MON AFTERNOON, 25.2N 71.5W
TUE MORNING, 26.9N 72.1W TUE AFTERNOON, AND 28.9N 72.2W WED
MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
33.3N 70.2W EARLY THU. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA,
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OTHERWISE, THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ERIN WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR
74W FROM MON THROUGH WED. IN THE WAKE OF ERIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N/25N THROUGH THU NIGHT.
RAMOS/MAHONEY
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