885
AXNT20 KNHC 171757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ERIN, THE FIFTH STORM OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON IS ALSO THE
FIRST HURRICANE, THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE, AND THE FIRST CATEGORY
5 OF THE ONGOING TROPICAL SEASON. HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR
21.3N 68.0W AT 17/1800 UTC OR 200 NM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO,
MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 40 FT NEAR THE CENTER. OUTER RAINBANDS OF
ERIN ARE STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF ERIN'S CENTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CORE OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. ERIN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT ERIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE
OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH MONDAY, AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS, AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SAN SALVADOR ISLAND
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING,
ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES, ARE POSSIBLE. SWELLS GENERATED
BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS,
BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THESE ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG 24W IS RELOCATED
FARTHER E ALONG 22W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 18N WITH AXIS NEAR
45W, MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N WITH AXIS NEAR 80W,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W, THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 12N43W. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON
THROUGH NEAR 14.5N18W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. ACROSS 11N30W
TO 16N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN
19W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
NW GULF DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FOUND BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ERIN.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED WITHIN ABOUT 175 NM NNW OF SAN
JUAN, PUERTO RICO. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF ERIN ARE BLOWING
ACROSS THE REGION WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES, AND THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE
WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS ARE JUST S OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOTED E OF 70W WITH MODERATE
SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
RAINBANDS FROM ERIN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NW
LATER TODAY AND STRENGTHEN MODESTLY THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
21.9N 68.6W THIS EVENING, NEAR 23.1N 70.2W MON MORNING, REACH NEAR
25.9N 72.2W TUE MORNING, AND NEAR 30.0N 72.7W WED MORNING. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS THROUGH THE PASSAGES ON MON.
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BLEED THROUGH THE PASSAGES AND
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FADING
MON. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS
THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BASIN
BEGINNING LATE WED AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ERIN.
ASIDE FROM MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN, A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM A
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N71W ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF AMERICA. GENTLE WINDS ARE ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023
MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE ERIN IS PROMOTING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE WATERS S OF 26N
BETWEEN 61W AND 72W, INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND
PASSAGES. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF 30W TO THE
COAST OF W AFRICA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED WITHIN THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS DUE
TO SWELL GENERATING BY ERIN ARE OBSERVED.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NW
LATER TODAY AND STRENGTHEN MODESTLY THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. ERIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 21.9N 68.6W THIS EVENING, NEAR 23.1N 70.2W MON
MORNING, REACH NEAR 25.9N 72.2W TUE MORNING, NEAR 30.0N 72.7W WED
MORNING, AND REACH NEAR 32.1N 72.1W WED EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA. LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY, AND SHIFT NW TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON, AND REACH THE COASTLINES OF THE SE U.S. TUE
MORNING, THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THU.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
ERIN WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 75W FROM MON THROUGH WED. IN THE WAKE OF
ERIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N/25N
THROUGH THU NIGHT.
GR
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