591
AXNT20 KNHC 172117
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 68.5W AT 17/2100 UTC
OR 240 NM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO, MOVING WNW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 40
FT NEAR THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF ERIN'S CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. BANDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MONDAY. LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING,
ALONG WITH LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES, ARE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND IN THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ERIN HAS BEEN GROWING IN
SIZE, AND THAT TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
HISPANIOLA, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD TO THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA,
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES
OF THE BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND
ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 23W FROM 04N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 46W, FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
THE AXIS OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 81W, S OF 20N,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W, THEN
CONTINUES TO 11N29W TO 13N43W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF, PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS BASIN- WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ABOUT THE NW GULF
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG
ABOUT 23N THU, AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTHWARD OF BERMUDA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ERIN.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF HURRICANE ERIN NORTH OF THE AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
ERIN ARE IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS, PRODUCING MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER THESE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS
OF 3-6 FT, ARE ELSEWHERE EAST OF 72W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 1-3 FT, ARE WEST OF 72W. RAINBANDS FROM ERIN CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 21.7N 68.5W AT
2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
946 MB. ERIN WILL MOVE MORE NW LATER TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 22.8N 69.7W TONIGHT, NEAR
24.0N 71.0W MON AFTERNOON, REACH NEAR 25.4N 71.9W MON NIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND EXIT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THU.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS THROUGH THE PASSAGES ON MON.
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BLEED THROUGH THE PASSAGES AND
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE FADING.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO EAST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN ON WED AND INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS WED NIGHT AND THU AS ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ERIN.
ASIDE FROM MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN, A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM A
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 31N71W ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF ERIN,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF 35W, WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 3-7 FT. E OF 35W, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 21.7N 68.5W AT
2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
946 MB. ERIN WILL MOVE MORE NW LATER TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 22.8N 69.7W TONIGHT, NEAR
24.0N 71.0W MON AFTERNOON, REACH NEAR 25.4N 71.9W MON NIGHT, REACH
NEAR 27.1N 72.5W TUE AFTERNOON, NEAR 29.0N 73.0W TUE NIGHT, NEAR
31.2N 72.7W WED AFTERNOON, BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. LARGE SWELL
GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS, AND SHIFT NW TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE BAHAMAS ON MON, AND REACH THE COASTLINES OF FLORIDA AND THE SE
U.S. EARLY TUE MORNING, THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
NORTH OF 24N THROUGH THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND ERIN WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO
NE WINDS OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 76W FROM EARLY TUE
THROUGH WED. IN THE WAKE OF ERIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N THROUGH THU NIGHT.
AL
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