533
AXNT20 KNHC 180620
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON AUG 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN, NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N
69.3W AT 18/0300 UTC OR 110 NM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. IT IS
MOVING NW AT 10 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
942 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 44 FT NEAR THE CENTER. HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF ERIN'S CENTER. ITS
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS,
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE
FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING ARE PROBABLE IN THESE LOCATIONS, WHILE
LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS OVERNIGHT, AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT, AND IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS, THEN FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. REGARDLESS OF
STRENGTH, ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SWELLS GENERATED
BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
HISPANIOLA, THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD
TO THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE ABOVE LOCATIONS DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A PRONOUNCED FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM
THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 48W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 81W FROM NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN PANAMA. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA AND NEARBY WATERS, AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN
NICARAGUA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR
DAKAR, THEN CURVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 10N29W TO 11N43W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA, INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE. TOGETHER WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA, THEY ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA AND OFF NAPLES.
OTHERWISE, S 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. THEN,
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 23N ON THU,
AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTH OF BERMUDA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON HURRICANE ERIN.
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS FEEDING TOWARD HURRICANE ERIN ARE
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM ERIN IS CREATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE LEE OF CUBA. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOSTLY FRESH
S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FT ARE DOMINATING THE
NORTHEASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. MODERATE NE TO SE
WINDS AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE SEEN AT THE REST OF THE EASTERN
BASIN, AND AT THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH
SEAS AT 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING AT THE NORTHEASTERN
BASIN AND THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MODERATE
WHILE SHIFTING TO THE S ON MON. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO
BLEED THROUGH THE PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BASIN THROUGH
MON MORNING BEFORE FADING AFTERWARD. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN ON WED WHILE INCREASING TO FRESH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
PORTION WED NIGHT AND THU, AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AT
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E TO SSE WINDS WITH 9 TO 14 FT SEAS ARE SEEN ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF HURRICANE ERIN. OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF ERIN, A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N41W IS PROMOTING GENTLE ENE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 11N TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO SE
WINDS AND 2 TO 5 FT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 6
FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 23.2N 70.2W
MON MORNING, 24.6N 71.3W MON EVENING AND 26.1N 72.1W TUE MORNING.
AFTERWARD, ERIN WILL BE AT 28.0N 72.8W TUE EVENING, 29.9N 73.1W
WED MORNING, AND 32.0N 72.5W WED EVENING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 36.5N 67.5W LATE THU. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD TO THE
BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
THESE ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND ERIN WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 76W FROM EARLY TUE THROUGH
WED. IN THE WAKE OF ERIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N THROUGH THU NIGHT.
CHAN
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