051
AXNT20 KNHC 181100
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON AUG 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 70.2W AT 18/0900
UTC OR 90 NM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND, MOVING NW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 45
FT OR 15 METERS NEAR THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CORE OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND MOVE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. EVEN THOUGH SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEGINNING TONIGHT, ERIN WILL REMAIN A LARGE
AND DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 18N WITH AXIS NEAR 27W,
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 18N WITH AXIS NEAR 50W,
MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N WITH AXIS NEAR 82W,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W, THEN CURVES
SW ACROSS 09N27W TO 12N43W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N
TO 12N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WHERE IS
ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N93W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE
WINDS BASIN-WIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
TROUGH, REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT, IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
SW GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. THEN,
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 23N ON THU,
AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTH OF BERMUDA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON HURRICANE ERIN.
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 22.8N 70.2W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB.
MOSTLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND SEASSE OF 3 TO 6 FT ARE DOMINATING
THE EASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF
70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 23.6N 71.2W THIS AFTERNOON,
25.0N 72.2W TUE MORNING, 26.6N 72.9W TUE AFTERNOON, 28.6N 73.4W
WED MORNING, 30.7N 73.4W WED AFTERNOON, AND 32.9N 72.2W THU
MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
37.2N 66.1W EARLY FRI. FRESH S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE NE
AND N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS TODAY. LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BLEED THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH
THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO EAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN ON WED AND
INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS WED NIGHT
AND THU AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN
THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 22.8N 70.2W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB.
ASIDE FROM ERIN, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN
40W AND 57W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 36N27W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N40W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES S OF 20N IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER
THESE REGIONS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 23.6N 71.2W THIS AFTERNOON,
25.0N 72.2W TUE MORNING, 26.6N 72.9W TUE AFTERNOON, 28.6N 73.4W
WED MORNING, 30.7N 73.4W WED AFTERNOON, AND 32.9N 72.2W THU
MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
37.2N 66.1W EARLY FRI. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE
BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND ERIN WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 76W FROM EARLY TUE THROUGH WED.
IN THE WAKE OF ERIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG 24N THROUGH THU NIGHT.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page