119
AXNT20 KNHC 181758
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON AUG 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 71.1W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
120 NM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND, MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT, MAKING ERIN A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PEAK SEAS
ARE AROUND 48 FT OR 14.5 METERS NEAR THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TO THE NORTH AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF
ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY AND MOVE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ERIN WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL
AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES,
AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 17.5N WITH AXIS NEAR 33W,
MOVING WEST AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 18.5N WITH AXIS NEAR 51.5W,
MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N WITH AXIS NEAR 82.5W,
MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W, THEN CURVES
SW TO NEAR 06N43W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 06N43W TO 08N50W,
WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES NEAR
09N53W AND EXTENDS NW TO 11N61W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION
DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 56W
AND 59W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WHERE IS
ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N95W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE
WINDS BASIN-WIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF FL IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD, AND IN THE
NW GULF AS WELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
MOSTLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT ARE DOMINATING
THE EASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF
70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N
70.8W AT 18/1500 UTC OR 100 NM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND, MOVING WNW
AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. ERIN WILL
MOVE TO 24.2N 71.6W THIS EVENING, 25.7N 72.5W TUE MORNING, 27.4N
73.2W TUE EVENING, 29.5N 73.5W WED MORNING, 31.7N 73.1W WED
EVENING, AND 33.9N 71.6W THU MORNING. OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL
PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ARE FORECAST. FRESH S TO SW
WINDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ERIN LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUE. ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATE TUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
ASIDE FROM ERIN, A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION IS LEADING
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING N OF 27N BETWEEN 41W
AND 60W. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 60W. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF 40W AND N OF 20N, CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS AND 4-7 FT
SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM ERIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT
18/1500 UTC OR 100 NM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND, MOVING WNW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. ERIN WILL MOVE TO
24.2N 71.6W THIS EVENING, 25.7N 72.5W TUE MORNING, 27.4N 73.2W
TUE EVENING, 29.5N 73.5W WED MORNING, 31.7N 73.1W WED EVENING,
AND 33.9N 71.6W THU MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO 37.7N 65.0W EARLY FRI. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND APPROACH THE
VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page