824
AXNT20 KNHC 182128
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 71.3W AT 18/2100 UTC
OR 600 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 44 FT. SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 62W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND
74W. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING, AND THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS, THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, AND THE EASTERNMOST CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS OR SO, ERIN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD. ERIN'S CONTINUED
EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE
BAHAMAS, MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S., BERMUDA, AND ATLANTIC
CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEACHGOERS IN THOSE AREAS
SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS, LOCAL AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH
WARNING FLAGS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 18W FROM 04N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34W FROM 04N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 54W FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
09N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W S OF 20N, MOVING WEST AT
10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W AND EXTENDS SW
TO NEAR 06N45W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 06N45W TO 09N52W. IT
RESUMES NEAR 10N535 TO 11N61W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS RESULTING IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS BASIN-WIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT, PREVAIL E OF 70W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 24.9N 71.9W TUE
MORNING, 26.5N 72.8W TUE AFTERNOON, 28.4N 73.5W WED MORNING, AND
CONTINUE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING, AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
TO 6 INCHES, ARE FORECAST. FRESH S TO SW WINDS OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS ERIN LIFTS NORTHWARD, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUE. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN, A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N AND E OF 63W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3-7 FT, GENERALLY PREVAIL W OF 35W.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT PREVAIL E OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 24.9N 71.9W TUE
MORNING, 26.5N 72.8W TUE AFTERNOON, 28.4N 73.5W WED MORNING, 30.5N
73.7W WED AFTERNOON, 32.7N 73.0W THU MORNING, AND 34.8N 71.2W THU
AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
38.0N 64.0W FRI AFTERNOON. OUTER BANDS OF ERIN WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS, THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, AND THE EASTERNMOST CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ARE FORECAST. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL
AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING LIMITED DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND APPROACH THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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