115
AXNT20 KNHC 190620
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 71.7W AT 19/0300 UTC
OR 600 NM SW OF BERMUDA. IT IS MOVING NW AT 7 KT AND THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 52 FT NEAR THE
CENTER. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST OF 62W. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. ITS OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS, AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THE EASTERNMOST CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. ERIN WILL GRADUALLY PULL FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS, AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
TUESDAY WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE CENTRAL AFRICA COAST NEAR 18W
FROM 19N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 18W AND 22W.
A BROAD EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W
AND 43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 28W AND 38W.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 56W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS
HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85W FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS HONDURAS, NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE MAURITANIAN COAST
JUST NORTH OF NOUAKCHOTT, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
13N30W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 07N42W BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
TO 10N46W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP NEAR THE LOW FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN FLORIDA IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF NAPLES AND NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA. OTHERWISE,
WEAK RIDGING IS SUSTAINING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE ENTIRE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON HURRICANE ERIN.
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CREATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN BASIN. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN
BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TUE EVENING AS ERIN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO STRONG OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN WED EVENING THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
OF ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING ABOUT
HURRICANE ERIN.
CONVERGENT E TO SE WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ERIN ARE CAUSING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.
CONVERGING S TO SW SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
ARE CREATING SIMILAR CONDITIONS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT
THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT SEAS ARE
PRESENT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE ERIN FROM 20N TO 29N
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
35W AND 64W. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 10
FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND EAST
OF FLORIDA. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES/63W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS AND
5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH SE TO
S WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL MOVE TO 25.4N 72.3W TUE
MORNING, 27.1N 73.2W TUE EVENING, 29.2N 73.7W WED MORNING, 31.4N
73.5W WED EVENING, 33.5N 72.5W THU MORNING, AND 35.4N 70.0W THU
EVENING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
38.5N 62.9W LATE FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.
CHAN
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