982
AXNT20 KNHC 191245
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 72.2W AT 19/1200 UTC OR
580 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95
KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 49 FT NEAR THE
CENTER. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST OF 63W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IN SPIRAL BANDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND
76W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL PASS TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ERIN IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GROW IN SIZE. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS,
BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 19N WITH AXIS NEAR 21W,
MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 26W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 18N WITH AXIS NEAR 37W,
MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS S OF 20N
NEAR 57W, MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W, THEN CURVES
SW ACROSS 07N40W TO 10N46W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE GULF CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN TO THE E OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS IS SUSTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 24.8N 72.0W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 120 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MOSTLY
MODERATE SE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ACROSS THE
EASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 26.1N 72.7W THIS AFTERNOON,
28.1N 73.5W WED MORNING, 30.3N 74.0W WED AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTER BANDS
OF ERIN WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NE, NORTH-CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AS ERIN CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCREASING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
WED EVENING THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF
ERIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
HURRICANE ERIN IS NEAR 24.8N 72.0W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 120 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. ASIDE FROM
ERIN, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N
BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS ARE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 36N25W AND A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N43W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TWO
TROPICAL WAVES S OF 20N IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THESE REGIONS, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 8
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 26.1N 72.7W THIS AFTERNOON,
28.1N 73.5W WED MORNING, 30.3N 74.0W WED AFTERNOON, 32.6N 73.4W
THU MORNING, 34.6N 71.4W THU AFTERNOON, AND 36.5N 68.4W FRI
MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
39.5N 61.0W EARLY SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE
BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK OR
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND APPROACH THE
VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
KRV
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