236
AXNT20 KNHC 191806
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1806 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 72.5W AT 19/1800 UTC OR
550 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 40 FT NORTH OF THE
CENTER. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST OF 64W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IN SPIRAL BANDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16.5N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND
77W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL PASS TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE
BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 19N WITH ITS AXIS NEAR 21.6W,
MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 11.5N TO 23N BETWEEN 19W AND 27.5W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 20N WITH ITS AXIS NEAR 38.5W,
MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH ITS AXIS S OF
19N NEAR 59W, MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16.5W, THEN CURVES
SW ACROSS 14N23W TO 07N49W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE GULF CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN TO THE E OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS IS SUSTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
BASIN-WIDE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEPICTED NORTH
OF 24.5N ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 72.5W AT 19/1800 UTC OR
550 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. MOSTLY MODERATE SE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE
MONA AND THE WINDWARDS PASSAGES. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AS ERIN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED EVENING THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF ERIN. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 20 MPH AND APPROACH THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 72.5W AT 19/1800 UTC OR
550 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. ASIDE FROM ERIN, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 60.5W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW TO W WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES S OF 25N IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THESE REGIONS, EXCEPT
FOR LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS WHERE SEAS
ARE 7 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 27.0N 73.1W THIS EVENING,
29.1N 73.9W WED MORNING, 31.4N 73.6W WED EVENING, 33.7N 72.4W THU
MORNING, 35.6N 70.0W THU EVENING, AND 37.3N 66.6W FRI MORNING.
ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 40.3N
58.7W EARLY SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS,
BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH AND
APPROACH THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
KRV
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