081
AXNT20 KNHC 192107
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED AUG 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT 19/2100 UTC OR
530 NM SW OF BERMUDA, MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 40 FT. SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 65W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF ERIN WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE NE BAHAMAS TONIGHT,
AND THEN MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY
ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. BEACHGOERS IN
THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS, LOCAL
AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 23W FROM 06N TO 19N, MOVING
WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 22W AND 29W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK, THIS SYSTEM COULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LIMITING ITS DEVELOPMENT
CHANCES AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 40W FROM 04N TO 20N, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH AND APPROACH THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 60W S OF 19N, MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT
THE TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W AND EXTENDS SW
TO NEAR 15N30W TO 07N49W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23.5N95W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SMOOTH TO SLIGHT
SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE
TO HURRICANE ERIN NORTH OF THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS,
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SMOOTH TO SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ERIN IS N OF AREA NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT
5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. THE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN ON WED AS ERIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED EVENING
THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF ERIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT AND
APPROACH THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ARE DOMINATING THE WATERS W OF
65W. ASIDE FROM ERIN, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS FROM 31N47W TO 30N50W TO 31N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N25W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 5-7 FT GENERALLY PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL MOVE TO 28.1N 73.4W WED MORNING,
30.3N 73.8W WED AFTERNOON, 32.6N 73.1W THU MORNING, 34.9N 71.3W
THU AFTERNOON, 36.8N 68.3W FRI MORNING, AND 38.4N 64.7W FRI
AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 41.0N 56.0W SAT AFTERNOON. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL
AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES,
AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH
OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT AND APPROACH THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
AL
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