755
AXNT20 KNHC 200623
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED AUG 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 73.0W AT 20/0300 UTC OR 470
NM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA. IT IS MOVING NNW AT 10
KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
AROUND 43 FT NEAR THE CENTER. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 65W. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FARTHER NORTH FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND
74W, AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF
THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS,
BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. BEACH GOERS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE
FROM LIFEGUARDS, LOCAL AUTHORITIES, AND BEACH WARNING FLAGS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 25W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST AT
AT 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 15N BETWEEN 22W AND 29W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES NEAR OR THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 42W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 37W AND 48W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 61W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER. IT IS MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE MAURITIAN COAST
NORTH OF NOUAKCHOTT, THEN MEANDERS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 14N30W
TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 09N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING UP SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SENEGAL, GUINEA AND GUINEA BISSAU. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN NEAR THE 1012 MB LOW FROM 05N TO 11N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT NE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE OF CUBA. A WEAKER THAN USUAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALLOWS MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF ACROSS
THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT EXIST.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC NOW THAT
HURRICANE ERIN, PRESENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 510 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA, CONTINUES TO PULL FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHILE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN ITS WAKE. AS A RESULT, TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF ERIN. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS..
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS CAUSING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
43W AND 58W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1026 MB AZORES
HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ESE TO ENE WINDS AND 4 TO 7
FT SEAS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. FARTHER WEST OUTSIDE THE
DIRECT INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ERIN, FRESH TO STRONG CYCLONIC WINDS
AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND
THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 10N TO 20N/24N, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS AT
5 TO 7 FT EXIST. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 9 FT IN MIXED LARGE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 29.3N 73.5W WED MORNING, NEAR 31.6N 73.4W WED EVENING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT, TO NEAR 33.8N 72.2W
THU MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT, THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS,
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
CHAN
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