659
AXNT20 KNHC 201043
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED AUG 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.9N 73.3W, OR ABOUT 480 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 20/0900 UTC, MOVING NNW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 44
FT NEAR THE CENTER. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 65W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
REVEALS THAT ERIN'S OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S APPEARANCE. NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME
APPARENT THIS MORNING. THEY CONSIST OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER AN AREA FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST BY THU AND FRI. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF ERIN WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND BERMUDA TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI, AND THEN PASS SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC CANADA FRI AND SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT
THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 26W FROM
05N TO 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND
31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
AN CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 43W FROM 05N
TO 21N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 18N
BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES NEAR
OR THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WAVE RECENTLY ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, AND
IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N TO INLAND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W, AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N24W AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 15N35W, THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N47W 1011 MB AND TO NEAR
10N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 45W-48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
FAIRLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
1 TO 2 FT SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAKER THAN USUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO ERIN BEING NORTH OF
THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF
ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT EXIST.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AS HURRICANE
ERIN CONTINUES TO PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND AT THE
SAME TIME CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT, TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N48W TO 30N55W. A TROUGH IS TO
ITS SOUTHEAST EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N45W TO 27N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 27N58W. RATHER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REST OF THE BASIN. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 4 TO 7 FT SEAS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. FARTHER WEST
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ERIN, FRESH TO STRONG
CYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 20N/24N, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE PRESENT.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN LONG-
PERIOD SWELL REMAIN FOR PRETTY THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
WEST OF ABOUT 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 30.6N 73.5W THIS AFTERNOON, TO NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33.0N
72.8W LATE TONIGHT AND WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING POST-
TROPICAL. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS,
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AGUIRRE
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