962
AXNT20 KNHC 201757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED AUG 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1757UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 73.6W AT 20/1800 UTC OR
460 NM W OF BERMUDA, MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95
KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 47 FT NEAR THE
CENTER. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST OF 61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED FROM 24N TO 34N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST BY THU
AND FRI. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY FRI, AND THEN PASS SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA FRI AND
SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA,
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE ROUGH OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
EASTERN ATLANTIC (AL99):
A TROPICAL WAVE (AL99) HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 29.1W FROM 05N TO 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT AND A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE WAVE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AND
FOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 45W FROM 05.5N
TO 21N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 19N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON
WAVE DIAGNOSTICS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE AXIS IS NOW ALONG
69W SOUTH OF 20N TO INLAND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 21N17W, AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N30W AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 14N36.5W. THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE (AL99).
..GULF OF AMERICA
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO SE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MOVES WESTWARD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
A WEAKER THAN USUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO ERIN BEING NORTH OF
THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EAST OF 78W WITH
SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. WEST OF 78W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. E TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WAKE OF HURRICANE ERIN. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR STRONG WINDS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E TO SE
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ERIN.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N43W TO 29N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT ARE FOUND ALONG
THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COVERS THE REST OF THE
BASIN. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT SEAS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 65W. FARTHER WEST OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE ERIN, FRESH TO STRONG CYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14
FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 14N TO 24N, MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN LONG-
PERIOD SWELL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 14N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF 23N AND EAST OF 35W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ERIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND THEN PASS SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL AFFECT THE
BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ELSEWHERE, A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WILL ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH AND A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
KRV
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