411
AXNT20 KNHC 041510
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU SEP 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC:
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND OVER THE EASTERN OR CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 21N, AND
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 12N33W, THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR 09N45W. AN ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N45W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 15W AND 25W, AND 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N86W TO 24N93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE E WINDS AND 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF, SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
LIGHT TO GENTLE TO BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SAT AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS ON SUN, BECOMING STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE NE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WEST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS, SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO ONGOING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN OFF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FARTHER NORTH, A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE OFF
SOUTHEAST CUBA IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO RELATED DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AND LOCAL MORNING LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MODERATE TRADE
CONVERGENCE AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
OFF COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN ADDITION,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY, CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LIMITED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 46N37W, TO OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF
THE UNITED STATES, THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITH 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT
SOUTH OF 31N. FARTHER EAST, A COLD-CORE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N60W, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N55W TO 24N59W. AS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR
12N133W, CLOSE TO WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
FRESH WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC NORTH
OF 25N, ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N40W.
THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OFF NORTHWEST AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST
EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AS
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALSO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH LATE TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT ARE AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS, SOUTH
FLORIDA, THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS,
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
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