561
AXNT20 KNHC 042131
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL91):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS
WEEKEND AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE.
THE AXIS OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 63W SOUTH OF 21N,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
12N34W TO NEAR 09N48W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N48W TO 10N54W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 31W, AND FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH. MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF, SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF LIKELY THROUGH SUN, AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE BASIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 5-7 FT, OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY AT
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS FROM 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT PREVAIL WEST OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N57W TO 21N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OVER
THE WATERS E OF 40W, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST OF
AFRICA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO MOVES WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E
OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONGER WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
AL
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