380
AXNT20 KNHC 050554
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL91):
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
THROUGH A BROAD 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W
AND 37W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 64W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.
PASSING NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. IT IS
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA JUST SOUTH OF DAKAR, THEN EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N35W TO 08N45W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N45W TO NORTH OF THE SURINAME-FRENCH
GUYANA BORDER AT 08N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 11N
BETWEEN 16W AND 44W, AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W
AND 55W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 26N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF AND
FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT, GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUN, THEN STALL OVER NORTHERN
GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE COUPLING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LEE OF CUBA, AND NEAR JAMAICA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL
WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1013
MB HIGH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS AT
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH 2 TO
4 FT SEAS AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO
SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT DOMINATE THE LEE OF CUBA AND NEAR
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 5
FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY AT
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH AXIS ALONG 63W,
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI, AND WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST
ACROSS 31N75W TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS, FLORIDA STRAITS AND GREAT BAHAMA BANK. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. FARTHER EAST,
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 45N61W IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
FRONT. A LARGE DOME OF 1024 MB HIGH AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SSE WINDS AND 4 TO 6
FT SEAS NORTH OF 10N/20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES/STATIONARY FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST
OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER
OVER EAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION, ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
CHAN
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