990
AXNT20 KNHC 051027
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL91):
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
TO 07N, WITH A A BROAD 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N35W ALONG THE AXIS,
DRIFTING W AT LESS THAN 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE (AL91) THAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THIS WEEKEND.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 65W FROM PUERTO RICO TO
CENTRAL VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN, N OF
14N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W, THEN EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N35W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 08N45W TO 08N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N
TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 11N,
NEAR COSTA RICA, PANAMA, AND COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF AROUND 25N89W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED ALONG
THIS TROUGH AT 26N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF INTO SUN NIGHT, GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE SUN, THEN STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN WATERS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH SECTIONS ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON CONVECTION BEING CAUSED BY THOSE FEATURES.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE COUPLING WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS WATERS NEAR CUBA, JAMAICA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND HAITI. A
TRADEWIND DOMINANT REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN, WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS, FRESH OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN, AND GENTLE
IN THE NW. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 3 TO 5 FT
IN THE EAST AND SW, AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NW.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST
TO 31N75W TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE FOR WATERS W OF 73W
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS AND AROUND CUBA. FARTHER EAST, A
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 45N61W IS CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE
BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
LIGHT TO GENTLE NE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A
LARGE DOME OF 1024 MB HIGH AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN 25W AND 65W. FARTHER W, MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, E OF 25W,
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER
OVER THE FAR NW BASIN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION, ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
KONARIK
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