920
AXNT20 KNHC 051811
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI SEP 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1805 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL91):
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35.7W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
TO 06N, WITH A A BROAD 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11.8N35.7W ALONG THE AXIS,
DRIFTING W AT LESS THAN 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
STILL FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND
A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE (AL91) THAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THIS WEEKEND.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 66W FROM PUERTO RICO
TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 65W
AND 67W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W, THEN EXTENDS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11.8N35.7W
TO 08.5N48.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W
AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 13.5N,
NEAR COSTA RICA, PANAMA, AND COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF,
ANCHORED BY 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
83W AND 86.6W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL
OVER THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO
THE CENTRAL GULF, ANCHORED BY 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES. FARTHER SOUTH, AN UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF. OTHERWISE, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUN, THEN STALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK OVER NORTHERN WATERS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH SECTIONS ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON CONVECTION BEING CAUSED BY THOSE FEATURES.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE COUPLING WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS WATERS
NEAR CUBA, JAMAICA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND HAITI. A TRADEWIND
DOMINANT REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN, WITH GENERALLY MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS, FRESH OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN, AND GENTLE IN THE
NW. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 3 TO 5 FT IN THE
EAST AND SW, AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NW.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
IT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD.
AT A MINIMUM, THIS FEATURE MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73.5W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST, A WEAK 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 25.5N60.5W IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 64.5W. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
LIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS ARE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. WHILE
MODERATE SE WINDS ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A LARGE DOME OF
1027 MB HIGH AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 25W
AND 60W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, E OF 25W, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
WILL MEANDER FROM 31N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. ELSEWHERE, THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
KRV
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