472
AXNT20 KNHC 052325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT SEP 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED WITH AXIS ALONG
36W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD TO 06N, WITH A BROAD 1011 MB LOW NEAR
12N36W. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING W AT 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 67W FROM PUERTO RICO
TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W
AND 70W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W, THEN EXTENDS
TO 08N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE CENTRAL
GULF, ANCHORED BY 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE SE GULF. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE SUN, THEN STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN WATERS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN.
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE COUPLING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS WATERS
NEAR CUBA, JAMAICA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND HAITI. A TRADEWIND
DOMINANT REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN, WITH GENERALLY MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS, FRESH OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN, AND GENTLE IN THE
NW. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE NW PORTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY BRING
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 28N59W TO 22N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS ARE WEST OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT, WHILE MODERATE SE WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE WITH FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 25W AND 60W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, E OF 25W, FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER
WESTWARD FROM 31N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. FRESH WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND STALL MON INTO TUE.
ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
ERA
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