322
AXNT20 KNHC 061030
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT SEP 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 39W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
THROUGH A BROAD 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W. THESE FEATURES ARE
MOVING WEST AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD INTO NW VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO 75W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
11N OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE MAURITIAN COAST
NEAR 20N16W THEN CONTINUES SW TO LOW PRESSURE AT 12N39W AND TO
09N49W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WEST FROM 09N49W TO 10N59W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W
AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N87W, WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
DIURNALLY WANED, LEAVING THE CONVECTION GENERALLY DRY EARLY THIS
MORNING. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SW WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE SW
GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW PRESSURE, SURFACE TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF LATE SUN, THEN STALL AND REPLACE THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE COUPLING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA. REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTIONS FOR INFORMATION ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADEWINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN,
AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE NW.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY SUN. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM 31N77W TO THE NW BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
PRESENT W OF 75W. TO THE EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND REFLECTIVE
SURFACE TROUGH ARE INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR INFORMATION ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. W OF 65W, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FT AR PRESENT. FOR WATERS E OF 65W, A TRADEWIND DOMINANT REGIME IS
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS, WITH SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE NW BAHAMAS WILL MEANDER OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND
AND BE REINFORCED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE
SAME AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HAZARDS WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE
OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
KONARIK
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