293
AXNT20 KNHC 061647
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT SEP 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1647 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 38.6W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ARE DECREASING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT, AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD INTO NW VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N17W THEN CONTINUES
SW 09N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO
10.5N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO DEPICTED
FROM 07.5N TO 13N AND EAST OF 18.5W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
LOW PRESSURE OF 1013 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N87W, WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SE INTO SE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND OVER THE SE GULF. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27.5N95W TO 24N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THIS TROUGH. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE SW GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO
THE CENTRAL GULF, ANCHORED BY 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE SUN, THEN STALL AND REPLACE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS
FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TRADEWINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT IN
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM 31N77W TO THE NW BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
PRESENT W OF 75W. TO THE EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND REFLECTIVE
SURFACE TROUGH ARE INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N
BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR INFORMATION ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. W OF 65W, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FT ARE PRESENT. FOR WATERS E OF 65W, A TRADEWIND DOMINANT REGIME
IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS, WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TROUGH OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL
PERSIST INTO MON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY LATE MON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HAZARDS
WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
DURING THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
KRV
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