660
AXNT20 KNHC 062258
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN SEP 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 40W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT, AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS THERE
SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD INTO NW VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N17W THEN CONTINUES
SW TO 09N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
..GULF OF AMERICA
LOW PRESSURE OF 1013 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 27N87W, WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SE INTO SE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED NEAR THE LOW/TROUGH. TO THE W, ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N94W TO 25N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ALONG THIS TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE PRESENT
IN THE SW GULF, WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
TO THE CENTRAL GULF, ANCHORED BY 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
27N87W. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE SUN, THEN STALL AND REPLACE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADEWINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL,
WITH MODERATE SEAS IN THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY SUN. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
FOLLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, EXCEPT FOR GENTLE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM 31N77W TO 25N80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT W OF
75W. TO THE EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A SURFACE TROUGH ARE
INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N BETWEEN 62W AND
70W. W OF 65W, GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT. FOR
WATERS E OF 65W, A TRADEWIND DOMINANT REGIME IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS, WITH ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE TROUGH OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WILL PERSIST INTO MON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HAZARDS WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
ERA
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