826
AXNT20 KNHC 070606
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN SEP 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 41W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 74W FROM NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN OVER WESTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
NEAR NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITIAN
NEAR NOUAMGHAR AND CURVES SOUTHWEST TO 10N30W, THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 09N49W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N49W TO NORTH OF
GUYANA AT 10N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 18W AND 34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS ACROSS THE COAST OF LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OFF THE TEXAS
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 21N85W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT
26N92W. CONVERGENT SW WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH ARE
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE EAST- CENTRAL GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND AT THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT SEAS TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AS A COLD
FRONT LATE SUN, THEN STALL AND REPLACE THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH MODEST CONVERGENT TRADES TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
MODEST CONVERGENT TRADES ARE CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE NORTHEASTERN BASIN. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO
SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE E
WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED AT THE EASTERN BASIN AND
GULF OF HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL BASIN INTO EARLY SUN. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS FEEDING TOWARD A PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ARE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD AND WEST OF 75W. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ITS REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. AT THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING SIMILAR
CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 70W. FARTHER EAST, A LARGE DOME
OF 1029 MB HIGH AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS NORTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 35W AND 70W/LESSER ANTILLES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE SE TO SW
WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
WILL PERSIST INTO MON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TUE.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, SUSTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
CHAN
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