097
AXNT20 KNHC 071732
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN SEP 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1732UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THIS
MORNING AND IT AXIS IS ALONG 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND FROM 07N TO 17N AND EAST OF 20W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 44.5W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 44.5W AND 47.5W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W FROM EASTERN CUBA
TO AROUND 11N, MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 83W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITIAN
NEAR 19N16.5W AND CURVES SOUTHWEST TO 10N30W, THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 11N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 26.5W AND IN BETWEEN 31.5W AND
43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY
BEACH, FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WEST OF 95W. TO THE
SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO
A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 27N85W TO 26N89W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA. NORTH OF THE FRONT, MODERATE N WINDS PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE, WITH
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS, EXCEPT FOR 2 TO 3 FT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO
THE CENTRAL GULF, ANCHORED BY 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N85W. A
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL STALL AND REPLACE THE TROUGH
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION
IN THE WESTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT
FOR WATERS N OF 20N AND S OF 11N, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
AND SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND COLOMBIAN LOW THIS WEEK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH
GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL ALSO PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE FLORIDA ARE LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 74W. TO THE SOUTHEAST,
ANOTHER TROUGH IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W. THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IN THE BASIN IS BEING CAUSED BY A TROPICAL WAVE OR THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE ABOVE SECTIONS.
EAST OF 71W, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS
DOMINATE AS THE BASIN REMAINS SOUTH OF AN EXPANSIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT. TO THE WEST OF 71W, GENTLE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE FAR NW WATERS MON INTO MID-
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
KRV
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