334
AXNT20 KNHC 072309
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON SEP 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED WITH AXIS ALONG 19W, MOVING W AT 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 07N TO 17N AND
EAST OF 25W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 45W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO AROUND 11N, MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITIAN
NEAR 19N16W AND CURVES SOUTHWEST TO 11N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO 28N94W, THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF 90W. TO THE
SE, A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N84W, WITH SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 29N83W TO THE LOW TO 26N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. NORTH OF THE FRONT, MODERATE N
WINDS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE, WITH SLIGHT
SEAS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SEAS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND REPLACE THE
TROUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. NORTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR WATERS N OF 20N AND S OF 11N,
WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND COLOMBIAN LOW THIS WEEK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH
GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL ALSO PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE FLORIDA ARE LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 75W. TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W.
EAST OF 71W, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS
DOMINATE AS THE BASIN REMAINS SOUTH OF AN EXPANSIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. TO THE WEST OF 71W, GENTLE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE FAR NW WATERS MON INTO MID-
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page