924
AXNT20 KNHC 080614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON SEP 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 20W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 10N TO 17N
AND EAST OF 20W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 47W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 81W FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA. IT IS MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 12N NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITIAN
NEAR NOUAMGHAR, AND CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N30W, THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 11N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU, SIERRA LEON
AND LIBERIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST STATIONARY FRONT CURVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 1015 MB
LOW OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO
BEYOND CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND UP
TO 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, EXCEPT NEAR THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW AT THE EAST-CENRAL GULF TO
BEYOND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. CONVERGENT NE TO E WINDS ARE TRIGGERING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A COLD FRONT ON MON, AND REPLACE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. IT IS EXPECTED TO THEN STALL MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN
GULF EARLY THIS WEEK. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMAICA AND ITS RELATED TROUGH ARE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN CUBA EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO ESE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E TO ESE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS DOMINATE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND COLOMBIAN LOW THIS WEEK WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN, WITH
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
29N66W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W. CONVERGENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE COUPLING WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO CREATE NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT
THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE EVIDENT
NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 73W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH AT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH
NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 35W AND
73W/LESSER ANTILLES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF
35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN STALL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS MON
THROUGH WED. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH FRI, BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
CHAN
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