072
AXNT20 KNHC 081508
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON SEP 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1500 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 22W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
22W AND 25W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 50W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
INTO HONDURAS. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W THEN CONTINUES TO 12N22W AND 08N47W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N51W TO 08N60W. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA TO 27N85W
TO 27N90W, WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND, TEXAS. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT NEAR 27N85W, ALONG A TROUGH REACHING FROM NEAR
BRADENTON, FLORIDA TO 25N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO 22N, WEST OF 87W, AND OFF THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODERATE NE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF
OFFSHORE FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK. N OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
EXPERIENCING GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
INTERACTING WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA. A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA.
THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 2 TO 4
FT SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT BREEZES AND SLIGHT
SEAS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE TROUGH REACHES FROM WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 35N72W TO 28N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE
TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHING FROM OFF
CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA TO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE, FLORIDA.
FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 5 FT ARE NOTED OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, BUT WITH GENTLE SE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT SEAS ALONG AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR BERMUDA,
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD- CORE UPPER TROUGH OVER THAT REGION.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, FARTHER EAST, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC
WATERS AROUND 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER
EAST, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A COLD
FRONT REACHING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N30W TO
30N43W. A BROAD RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT IS ANCHORED BY 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 40N35W. FRESH NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT ELSEWHERE THE PATTERN
IS SUPPORT MOSTLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE MOSTLY STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
OFF NE FLORIDA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRINGING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
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