861
AXNT20 KNHC 082336
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE SEP 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 23W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 10N
BETWEEN 19W AND 26W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
INTO HONDURAS. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N52W TO 10N62W.
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA TO 26N97W
NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N84W, ALONG A TROUGH
REACHING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY, FLORIDA TO 23N92W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH
EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE FLORIDA. THE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU AS THE FRONT SHIFTS A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BASIN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LIGHT BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEK AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM WEAK A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 33.5N74W TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE
TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE, FLORIDA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED OFF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, BUT WITH GENTLE SE BREEZES
AND SLIGHT SEAS ALONG AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR
BERMUDA, ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD-CORE UPPER TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AROUND 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER
EAST, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A DECAYING
COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N30W TO
31N46W. A BROAD RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT IS ANCHORED BY 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 40N35W. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT
ELSEWHERE THE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OFF NE
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH WED, THEN MOVE SE
AS A COLD FRONT BY THU, LIKELY REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF FLORIDA, THE NW BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS WEEK, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
ADAMS
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