258
AXNT20 KNHC 090616
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE SEP 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 10N
BETWEEN 21W AND 27W AND ALSO NEAR THE ISLAND OF SAL.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 52W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W,
AND FARTHER NORTH WITHIN 35 NM OF 16N53W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 89W FROM THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR INTO
THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN IN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS NEAR THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR
DAKAR, AND CURVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N24W, THEN WESTWARD TO
10N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF SENEGAL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W, AND ALSO NORTH OF THE TROUGH
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR CEDAR
KEY, FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. TO THE SOUTH, A
SURFACE TROUGH RUNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM 24N90W ACROSS A 1011
MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N85W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NEAR THE LOW AND OFF
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING UP
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT, NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE
PRESENT AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN GULF, AND AT THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAINLY
GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK, WHILE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL ALSO PERSIST IN THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE FLORIDA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF UNTIL THU, WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF JAMAICA IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE E TO ESE
WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FOUND AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
LATE THIS WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWEST FROM WEAK A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N73W ACROSS 31N74W TO THE GREAT
BAHAMA BANK. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING UP
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OFF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NORTH
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W. TO THE SOUTHEAST, ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST
ACROSS 31N78W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT DOMINATE NORTH OF 29N AND WEST OF
78W. MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 2 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE
EVIDENT. FOR THE CENTRAL AND REST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, NORTH
OF 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 78W/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FT EXIST. GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W..
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH WED, THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT BY THU, LIKELY REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA,
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS. NORTH OF THE FRONT,
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
CHAN
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