216
AXNT20 KNHC 091002
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE SEP 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 25W WITH AN AXIS NOW
JUST W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 27W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 55W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W.
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS NOW
MOVED INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS NOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR
15N17W THEN CONTINUES TO 10N23W TO 10N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH TO THE E OF 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 06N
TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR CEDAR
KEY, FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. TO THE SOUTH, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 27N85W TO 24N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED N AND E OF THE LOW, BETWEEN THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, MAINLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF,
WINDS LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHERLY, WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR
LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE EASTERN
GULF OFFSHORE FLORIDA GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THIS TIME.
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF . FRESH NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NW BASIN HAS
DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING, LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN VOID OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
MODERATE E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FOUND AT THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK,
CAUSING WINDS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN TO INCREASE, BECOMING FRESH
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BY WED. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPPED JUST OFFSHORE THE SE UNITED STATES
EXTENDS INLAND AROUND JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION, FRESH NE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
AROUND 31N71W TO THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 25N,
EASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH AXIS TO AROUND 65W. YET ANOTHER TROUGH NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W.
THE REMAINING CONVECTION, IN THE DEEP TROPICS, IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES, AND IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ABOVE SECTIONS.
N OF 20N AND E OF 50W, FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT
PREVAIL, IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. TO THE S AND W,
MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS DOMINATE. FOR WATERS W OF 72W,
EXCLUDING NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH WED, THEN MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT BY
THU, POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA, THE NW BAHAMAS, AND REGIONAL WATERS. N OF THE FRONT,
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS WEEK, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
KONARIK
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