536
AXNT20 KNHC 091618
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE SEP 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1618 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 26W FROM 18.5N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN
21W AND 27W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ALONG 53W
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18.5N16.5W THEN
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO
10.5N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED 07N TO 20N AND E OF 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N
TO 12N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR CEDAR
KEY, FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. TO THE SOUTH, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 27N85W TO 26N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED E OF THE LOW, BETWEEN THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF 26N AND WEST OF 89W. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST. ELSEWHERE N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF, WINDS
LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHERLY, WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE FLORIDA GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING
THIS TIME. UNTIL IT DISSIPATES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT IN
THE NE GULF, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 75.5W AND 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
FOUND SOUTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL
BASIN. MODERATE E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FOUND AT THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK,
CAUSING WINDS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN TO INCREASE, BECOMING FRESH TO
STRONG OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPPED JUST OFFSHORE THE SE UNITED STATES
EXTENDS INLAND AROUND JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION, FRESH NE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
AROUND 31N64W TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 23N BETWEEN
62W AND 73W. YET ANOTHER TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND NORTH OF 23.5N BETWEEN 42W AND 57W. THE REMAINING
CONVECTION, IN THE DEEP TROPICS, IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES, AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE ABOVE
SECTIONS.
N OF 20N AND E OF 48W, FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
PREVAIL, IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. TO THE S AND
W, MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS DOMINATE. EAST OF 20W, FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. FOR WATERS W OF 72W,
EXCLUDING NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
OFF NE FLORIDA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH WED, THEN
MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT BY THU, POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA, THE NW BAHAMAS, AND REGIONAL
WATERS. N OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THIS WEEK, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
KRV
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