784
AXNT20 KNHC 092336
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED SEP 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 27.5W FROM 18.5N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 54W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 10N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
30W AND 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTH OF CEDAR
KEY, FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. TO THE SOUTH, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N85W TO 26N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE,
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 91W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE FLORIDA GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING
THIS TIME. UNTIL IT DISSIPATES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT IN
THE NE GULF, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK,
CAUSING WINDS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN TO INCREASE, BECOMING FRESH TO
STRONG OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALL
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N69W TO 24.5N68W IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 62W AND
71W. MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THIS FEATURE.
ANOTHER TROUGH FARTHER EAST EXTENDING FROM 30N45W TO 23N40W IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
TROUGH.
N OF 20N AND E OF 45W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 9 FT PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. TO THE S
AND W, MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS DOMINATE. EAST OF 25W,
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. FOR WATERS W
OF 72W, EXCLUDING NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED OFF NE FLORIDA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
WED, THEN MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT BY THU, POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA, THE NW BAHAMAS,
AND REGIONAL WATERS. N OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. CURRENTLY, AN
AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS NOTED BETWEEN
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS WEEK,
PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY
MODERATE SEAS.
ADAMS
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