412
AXNT20 KNHC 100420
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED SEP 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 29W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 55W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 103N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 16N25W TO 11N35W TO 11N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
11N40W TO 11N45W TO 08N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTH OF CEDAR
KEY, FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF JUST OFF THE TEXAS-MEXICO
BORDER. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 27N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W SOUTH
OF 25N, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OFFSHORE FLORIDA GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THIS TIME.
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. FRESH NE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN, WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH
1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ALL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHEAST TO 26N70W. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 25N70W.
FARTHER EAST, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY
1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE AZORES NEAR 38N35W. THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
25N AND WEST OF 30W, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO
7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED OFF NE FLORIDA WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT
AND MOVE SE, REACHING A LINE FROM W OF BERMUDA TO NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH, FLORIDA, BY FRIDAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. N OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH WED. ELSEWHERE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS WEEK,
PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY
MODERATE SEAS.
CHRISTENSEN
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