214
AXNT20 KNHC 101005
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED SEP 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 30W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 57W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 16N25W TO 11N35W TO 11N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF TAMPA BAY TO THE NW GULF
NEAR 26N95W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 26N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
150 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N91W TO THE SW
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
NOTED OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE, OTHERWISE N OF THE
FRONT, WINDS ARE MODERATE AND EASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS ARE ARE 3 TO 5
FT, OTHERWISE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO
A COLD FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THU, AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SLOWLY MOVES E AND OUT OF
THE BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT
AND IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF
TODAY, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF HONDURAS IS INDUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 78W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH E WINDS AND
3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE WINDS
WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH ARE ONGOING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, N OF THE
BAHAMAS AND E TO 76W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NE TO 25N70W, BUT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAIL IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE N OF 27N
BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. BROAD BUT RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND E OF 30W, WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT THU AND MOVE SE, REACHING A LINE
FROM W OF BERMUDA TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA, BY FRIDAY,
BEFORE STALLING AGAIN, AND DISSIPATING THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS NEAR FLORIDA AND
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. N OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS WEEK,
PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY
MODERATE SEAS.
KONARIK
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