527
AXNT20 KNHC 101815
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED SEP 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 31W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO NEAR 52W
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD, MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W
AND 56W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W AND THEN
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N34W AND THEN WESTWARD TO 09N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND 43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF TAMPA BAY TO THE NW
GULF NEAR 26N95W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR
26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO NOTED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N93W TO
THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E
WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE, OTHERWISE
N OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE MODERATE AND EASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS
PREVAIL ARE 3 TO 5 FT, OTHERWISE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE
NW GULF WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A COLD FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THU, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF SLOWLY MOVES E AND OUT OF THE BASIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED N
OF THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF TODAY, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
EXPERIENCING GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
SURFACE WINDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN, ARE INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, N
OF THE BAHAMAS AND E TO 72W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
N OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N47W TO NEAR 20N48W, AND IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA FROM 25N TO 31N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC W
OF 35W IS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. AREAS E OF 35W AND N OF 20N ARE SEEING FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE NE
FLORIDA WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT THU AND MOVE SE, REACHING
A LINE FROM W OF BERMUDA TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA, BY
FRIDAY, BEFORE STALLING AGAIN, AND DISSIPATING THIS WEEKEND. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATERS
NEAR FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. N OF THE
FRONT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THIS WEEK, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
ADAMS
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